Gut Play for Today’s CIN/PIT & HOU/BAL games

Curious about any feedback you guys might have about this gut play I’m cooking up for the CIN/PIT & HOU/BAL games that start in an hour.

For the PIT game I want to indirectly back Skenes by fading Lodolo’s pitcher fantasy and Elly’s Hitter Fantasy. I know Elly hit very well against Skenes in their last matchup but Elly was sharper at that point in the season and I think Skenes is more hungry right now. For the Nick Lodolo fade I think he’ll struggle with pitch count and get pulled before 6 full innings (Quality Start). Skenes will get the win and Lodolo will fall short of the fantasy points needed to clear his line.

For the HOU/BAL game I think Burnes is going to come in with a chip on his shoulder after the poor performance his last time on the mound. Not only that but I think the Orioles batting lineup is going to show out for their veteran pitcher and try to get some points on the board early for support. This is why I’m also backing Gunnar Henderson. Sure the HOU boys have been hitting well but Corbin Burnes poses good career numbers pitching against HOU, and im banking on him to earn the quality start and win.

What do y’all think?