Greetings comrades! Since y'all liked my last post I decided I would share an Eva classic: expected value calculations that nobody asked for!

This time I'm talking about Prismatic Evolutions, which is obviously super controversial right now, partly because it's freaking impossible to get and partly because people are debating whether it's “the next Evolving Skies.” I know there’s been a ton of speculation and hype, so I wanted to share the big takeaways I found.

Data Discussion

Here are the pull rates we are using^^ (from TCGplayer)

The info above comes from TCGplayer's published pull rates, as do the market prices. I used these to make my EV calculations. Factoring in everything you could possibly sell from each pack—commons, code cards, SIRs, etc.—you get an expected value of $7.96 per booster pack. This is actually pretty impressive for a modern set at release.

• I combined all this data in a big ol’ spreadsheet and did the ~math~ to find the expected value per pack, which can easily be extrapolated to find the ETB's expected value (more below)

Here is the breakdown of that:

Screenshot from the spreadsheet^^

You can download the full spreadsheet used, which includes the prices for EVERY card (including all master ball/poke ball/reverse holo variant) here: https://www.misprint.com/posts/how-much-is-prismatic-evolutions-really-worth

ETB Value:
We can extrapolate easily for a 9-pack ETB:

• $7.96 × 9 = $71.66 from the packs

Don’t Forget the Promo!

Each ETB comes with an (admittedly super cute) Eevee promo (~$12). So, total expected value sits around:

$71.66 (packs) + $12 (promo) = ~$83.66

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Variance: Boom or Bust

Let’s say you open one ETB:

• Scenario A: No Big Hits Maybe you get 2 regular ex cards (total ~$8), 1 Full-Art Trainer ($2), a minor Master Ball foil (~$5), plus your Eevee promo ($10). That’s $25—well under the $50 MSRP, let alone the ~$110 secondary market price. This is a very common outcome, by the way.
• Scenario B: Jackpot You see that glimmering Umbreon ex alt-art in the final pack and watch your entire box’s value shoot to $1,500+ in seconds. You dance around your living room, ignoring the fact that your other pulls might be worthless.

Most boxes will hover closer to Scenario A, with a handful of lesser hits. But because of the single scenario where you randomly pop a $300–$1,500 card, the average ends up near ~$83. The set is feast-or-famine for sure.

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Sealed vs. Opening

Keeping It Sealed

• Historically, anything with heavy Eeveelution presence does well long-term. (See Evolving Skies going from $120 to $1,350+ per box in under two years—makes my bank account weep for not hoarding more.)
• If The Pokémon Company doesn’t do massive reprints, sealed Prismatic Evolutions could age like fine wine.

Opening It Up

• If you love the thrill of chasing alt-arts, YOLO, but like always it's just gambling and you're statistically likely to lose money.
• If you’re only after a few specific Eeveelutions, buy singles and save yourself the regret of 9 dud packs. (but probably wait for the prices to drop)

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tldr:

• Prismatic Evolutions is loaded with Eeveelutions & alt-arts, basically Evolving Skies vibes. It's cool but super high variance.
• Average EV is surprisingly high ($80-$85/ETB), but that’s mostly because 1 big hit can carry your entire box.
• Probably wait a few months to buy either singles OR sealed. EV will go down as singles prices settle, and very high chance the set gets reprinted. Worst case if you DON'T buy now is the sealed prices go up, but you never lose money by not buying anything.

I wrote a more detailed/wordy breakdown (with more explanations, a link to download the spreadsheet, and more personal commentary) over on my blog, if that’s your jam. Let me know if you have any questions or if there’s any data you want to see sliced a different way—I love making silly charts. I also made a YouTube video about it.

-Eva's Binder

Anyway, that’s all! Mods, let me know if any of this is too self-promotional—I’m happy to remove links. I just wanted to share the data. Thanks, folks, and good luck pulling that alt-art Umbreon!

A screenshot of the data on the site

P.S. if you made it this far, you can also research and buy/sell graded cards on my site as well! :D Here's an example: https://www.misprint.com/card/9603030